*ππ 5 Key Takeaways From Wednesday’s Fed Rate Decision — What Investors Need to Know πΌ✨**
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The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a much-anticipated quarter percentage point interest rate cut at a meeting that was packed with intrigue and surprises. Here's a look at five top takeaways:
1. The hawkish cut is real — kind of. Wall Street had been
anticipating the Fed would deliver a strong dose of caution along with the cut,
with a warning that the bar was high for additional easing. Markets, though,
didn't seem to mind: Stocks posted solid gains on the day
while Treasury yields fell.
1. While a 9-3 vote might suggest broad support
for the move, the Federal Open Market Committee is different. Three dissents is
a lot, the most, in fact, since September 2019. And one of the "no"
votes came from an unexpected source: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Governor Stephen Miran wanted a half-point cut, while Goolsbee and Kansas City
Fed President Jeffrey Schmid favored holding steady. A total of six of the 19
participants at the meeting said they wouldn't have voted for the cut, giving
voice to "soft dissents" who think the easing has gone far enough.
1. The dots held. In short, the "dot plot" of individual
officials' rate views were little changed for the coming years, with the median indicating just one cut in 2026 and
another in 2027 before the fed funds rate settles around a neutral 3%. Markets
largely took the committee at its word, though futures pricing late in the day
pointed to a non-negligible 38% chance of two cuts next year.
1. Bond buying is back. Well, not really bonds, but bills, which the
Fed will start buying again come Friday. With overnight
funding markets feeling pressure, the central bank said it will buy $40 billion
of short-term bills as part of a monthly program aimed at stabilizing markets
and keeping the fed funds rate within its quarter-point range. Buying levels
will change, but some market participants viewed the announcement as a stealth
easing that is positive for risk assets.
1. Chair Jerome Powell was mostly upbeat about
growth, and so was the committee. "We have an extraordinary economy,"
said Powell, who has just three meetings left as chair. FOMC officials raised
their view as well, boosting the outlook for 2026 gross
domestic product growth by half a percentage point to 2.3%.
What
they're saying
"Given the lack of consensus on the
Committee displayed today, along with the slow release of traditional economic
data, and the arrival of a new Fed Chair early in 2026, we think the Fed is
likely to remain on hold for a while. Still, continued softness in some of the
labor indicators can certainly bring another 25 bps cut into the mix for
January." — Rick Rieder, head of fixed income at BlackRock and a reported finalist to succeed Powell
"The Fed's guidance probably tells us less
than usual about the interest rate outlook, for two big reasons. First, they
know less than usual about the current state of the economy because the
shutdown delayed the release of economic statistics. Second, the Fed's guidance
doesn't account for how its approach will change after Chair Powell's term ends
in May. In 2026, the Fed seems more likely to cut rates by more than signaled
in the December Dot Plot than by less." — Bill Adams, chief economist,
Comerica Bank
"The Fed lifted its expectations of growth
next year which, along with the increase in cash to American households via
changing tax policy, will create doubt about the path of monetary policy. This
dynamic in our estimation substantially lifts the bar on any prospective rate
cut at the Fed's next meeting in January." — Joseph Brusuelas, chief
economist, RSM
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